PIPONOMICS · ISSUE 06 · MONDAY, OCTOBER 26, 2026 · COT AS OF OCT 20
The Big Guys sold the dollar net for the first time in five reports.The main event starts Wednesday, and it doesn’t let up until payrolls on November 6.
01 THE LEDGER
What This Is: every call from October 19, scored against what price did. Misses and losses go first, then anything unresolved - an idea trading against the call but short of its wrong-if. No misses or losses this week.
UNRESOLVED - GBP/JPY downside idea from 208.79. 303 pips against at Wednesday’s close, after three daily closes above 210.7. The week closed 209.84, 86 pips under the wrong-if. 105 against. Still live.
UNRESOLVED - AUD/USD downside idea from 0.6948. Four closes above 0.7000. Friday’s high stopped five pips under the 0.7043 wrong-if and the week closed seven under it. 88 against. Stands by the rule and by very little else.
UNRESOLVED - AUD/CAD downside idea from 0.9841. 14 pips against. Wednesday’s high stopped 14 pips short of the 0.9902 wrong-if, and its close was two-tenths of a pip above the Cloud’s bottom. Thursday closed back under. Signal intact.
HIT, soft - GBP/JPY resistance at 210.30 to 210.70, eighth test. Three daily closes above it, back under on the weekly close. From this issue, daily closes through a level get their own line.
HIT - USD/JPY 90-degree count, Wednesday to Thursday, October 21 to 22, and the 158.0 to 158.9 range. Three closes inside the range, the high on Tuesday, then Thursday fell 156 pips out the bottom. The first USD/JPY date this letter wrote down in advance, and it was the turn. Friday’s low was 253 pips off Tuesday’s high and 156.0 held by eight pips, so the downside idea has not fired. Eighth weekly close under the Kijun-Sen.
HIT - EUR/JPY downside idea from 178.34. 260 pips on. Support at 176.22 gave way Thursday. Friday’s low went ten pips through 175.2 and closed 54 above it.
HIT - EUR/USD downside idea from 1.1380. 177 pips on after a 78-pip week, the narrowest since August. The floor stayed 120 pips away and the wrong-if 130.
HIT - NZD/USD topside idea from 0.5655. 46 pips on. Thursday’s high stopped 67 short of the 0.5777 destination, and the 0.5565 wrong-if was never within 85 pips.
HIT - NZD/JPY, watched. Wednesday’s daily close got inside the weekly Cloud, but the weekly close stayed 36 pips under it. Signal intact; 88.12 never came within 58 pips.
HIT - EUR/AUD, watched. The bears got their weekly close under 1.5955, at a new two-year low. Last week’s 200 words on the Chikou Span’s runway did not age well. It was never an idea, which is the good news.
HIT - GBP/AUD, watched. Neither line reached. 177 pips lower on the week, still two of three.
HIT - GBP/NZD conditional, Friday October 23. Closed 2.3462 after a 158-pip session, 28 pips under the 2.3490 trigger. Fired. Live from Monday’s open.
HIT - GBP/USD, watched. Thursday’s high went 13 pips through the bulls’ 1.3406 and the week closed 28 under it. Nothing committed, correctly.
HIT - Platinum and silver, watched. Neither got the daily close the bulls needed: platinum’s Tuesday high went 2.5 dollars through 1,648 but closed at 1,640.8, and silver’s high stopped three cents under 58.64. Then they lost 5.0% and 5.4%, and both bears’ lines gave way Thursday.
02 THE PILE-UP
What This Is: who is crowded, and how badly - CFTC futures-only positioning as of October 20. The write-up covers the biggest moves and the most lopsided positions; the chart has the rest.