PIPONOMICS · ISSUE 07 · MONDAY, NOVEMBER 2, 2026 · COT AS OF OCT 27
Issue 6 scored seventeen hits and three misses - the first misses of the run (kind of like the MN Vikings, first miss this week).Thursday is GBP/JPY’s full-year date at 211.0, with the Bank of England the same day and price already standing on the level.
01 THE LEDGER
What This Is: every level, date and idea from October 26, marked against what price did - misses and losses first, hits after, and anything pending or open at the bottom. A miss is a date or level that never got tested; a loss is one that got tested and failed. Weekly.
LOSS - GBP/JPY, downside idea from 208.79. The week closed 211.02, 32 pips over the 210.7 wrong-if. LOSS of 223 pips, measured to the close that ended it.
LOSS - GBP/NZD, downside idea from 2.3460. Wednesday ran 429 pips and closed 2.3688, 20 over the 2.3668 wrong-if. LOSS of 228. It lasted three sessions, which is about as long as my New Year’s resolutions.
LOSS - GBP/JPY, the shelf, ninth test. Closed above 210.3 to 210.7 on Thursday, Friday and the week. Scored as failed, as promised on October 26.
HIT, soft - AUD/USD, downside idea from 0.6948. Week closed 0.7032, 11 pips under the 0.7043 wrong-if. Thursday’s high stopped a pip under the 0.7069 rung. 84 against.
HIT, soft - NZD/USD, topside idea from 0.5655. Wednesday’s low at 0.5580 stopped 15 pips above the 0.5565 wrong-if. Week closed 0.5631, 25 against.
HIT, soft, as a window - GBP/USD’s 1.2775 date, Monday October 26. Date only, 603 pips away. The turn came one session early at Friday the 23rd’s 1.3408 high, then 135 pips down.
HIT, soft, as a window - USD/JPY’s 152.6 date, Thursday October 29. Date only, 426 pips away. Wednesday’s 158.35 was the week’s high, one session early, then 139 pips down.
HIT, soft - GBP/AUD, the 90-degree rung at 1.8973. Two daily closes under it, recovered on the weekly close at 1.9042, 69 above.
HIT - the Yen range bars at 180 days. Monday’s 156.65 was USD/JPY’s low of the week, on day one of the count. Up 170 pips by Wednesday.
HIT - the March 2 gap set at 240 days, Wednesday October 28. The board turned on the day: GBP/NZD’s 429-pip session, USD/JPY’s high of the week, lows in NZD/USD and GBP/USD, a new low in EUR/AUD. Two for two, two weeks apart.
HIT, as a window - EUR/JPY’s 179.0 date, Friday October 30. Friday’s 176.60 was the week’s high, then 152 pips down. A turn on the date, 241 pips under the level.
HIT - USD/JPY, the lid and the conditional. No daily close under 156.0 or over 158.0, so neither side fired. Wednesday went 35 pips into the lid and closed under it.
HIT - EUR/JPY, downside idea from 178.34. 248 pips on. Friday’s low went 12 pips through 175.2 and closed 66 above it. The 177.97 wrong-if was never within 137.
HIT - EUR/USD, downside idea from 1.1380. 222 pips on, the most of the run. Thursday’s low pierced the October 14 low by 8 pips and closed back above it.
HIT - AUD/CAD, downside idea from 0.9841. 16 pips on. Wednesday wicked 8 pips over the Kijun-Sen and closed under it. The bulls missed their 0.9873 hearing by six-tenths of a pip. Close only counts in horseshoes.
HIT - NZD/JPY, watched. Wednesday’s low went one pip under the bears’ 88.12 and the week closed 88.74. Touched, not taken.
HIT - EUR/AUD, watched. New low of the sample at 1.5776, weekly close at 1.5870. A 41st straight week in the ideal bearish structure. Nothing committed.
HIT - GBP/AUD, watched. The bears’ 1.8942 gave way on Tuesday and Wednesday, then Thursday took back 141 pips. Week closed 1.9042. Nothing committed.
HIT - GBP/USD, watched. Friday’s high went 37 pips through the bulls’ 1.3397, and the week closed 7 under it. Wednesday did the same to the bears’ 1.3287. Neither line taken on a close.
HIT - platinum and silver, watched. The bears’ 1,526 and 53.03 both gave way on Thursday’s close. Platinum lost 7.7% on the week, silver 8.8%. Silver linings were in short supply.
PENDING - AUD/JPY’s 108.5 date, Saturday October 31. Date only, 231 pips away. The window runs through Monday; scored next issue.
02 THE PILE-UP
What This Is: who is crowded, and how badly. Weekly, from the CFTC Traders in Financial Futures report for currencies and the Disaggregated report for metals, futures only, October 27.
The Big Guys are the professional speculators - hedge funds and CTAs. A crowded position is a loaded spring.
Retail is the small-account money, on the row beneath. Asset managers are left off on purpose - they hedge, they don’t chase.
Each bar is one group’s own position, split long against short. Never one group netted against another. “Was” is the prior week.
Loonie, 84% short, from 81% - a new high for the run. Another 5,917 longs sold into a rising Loonie. The net short went from 88,000 to 97,000 contracts while USD/CAD lost 282 pips in three weeks. Bold strategy.
Kiwi, 75% short, from 71% - another 2,877 longs sold. 60% of the long book gone in three reports. NZD/USD fell 71 pips, the first week the quitting paid. The letter’s topside idea is on the other side, a soft hit by 15 pips.
Pound, 58% long, from 63% - 6,717 shorts added. Two thirds of last week’s covered shorts went right back on, and GBP/USD rose 12 pips. Retail is 59% short and wrong by the same 12.
Yen, 54% short, from 57% - 7,014 longs bought. 11,056 longs added in two reports, and USD/JPY rose 74 pips anyway. Early is just wrong with better PR.
Real, 53% long, from 59% - 11,211 shorts added. The short book grew 27%, the biggest one-week move on the currency board.
Platinum, 53% long, from 61% - 4,195 shorts added, then it lost 7.7%. The short book grew 37% in the report dated before the drop. The crowd got there first, and the bears’ 1,526 gave way on Thursday’s close.
Silver, 55% long, from 56% - and the price lost 8.8%. Friday alone was 5.8%, and silver is down 19% since October 9. Retail holds 57% more longs than the Big Guys and sold 701 into the drop, the string quartet on the Titanic agreeing to one more number.
Copper, 74% long, from 77% - 5,026 longs sold. Sold in four of the last five reports, 30,000 contracts gone since late September. The bulls are pinching pennies.
Gold, 88% long - the first long buying in eight reports. Palladium, 77% short - a seventh straight week of shorts added.
03 THE APPOINTMENT BOOK
What This Is: when a market is most likely to turn. Three ways of measuring it, from the specific to the general - one pair’s own cycles, then the whole calendar’s anniversaries, then where the two agree. Counts off 36 committed swing dates and the anniversary record; updated as counts land, and five landed this week.
One pair at a time. Counts run forward from a confirmation swing - the pivot that held and got retested. GBP/USD counts in calendar days. GBP/JPY counts in degrees of the year, where 360 is one year.
GBP/JPY’s full-year appointment at 211.0 is Thursday, and price closed Friday at 211.02. The level was reached early on October 19, rejected at 211.995 three days later, and price came back to it on the last session before the window opened, with the Bank of England the same day. The rule check on Friday’s close was trivial: the level is two pips away against a 290-pip average week. No idea into it, for the reason given under the chart below; the appointment is scored as a turn or the absence of one next Monday, not as a trade.
GBP/USD’s October 26 date produced a turn one session early, at Friday the 23rd’s high, and is on the card as a window hit. The 270-day count off the February 9 anchor lands this Friday, November 6, by the calendar and Monday the 9th by the wheel - the next committed GBP/USD count. The October 14 low at 1.3137 has held for two and a half weeks without a retest, which keeps it a candidate swing and not a confirmed one; candidates do not get counts.
USD/JPY’s October 29 date produced a turn one session early, at Wednesday’s high, and the Yen range bars’ 180-day count caught Monday’s low. Two USD/JPY turns in one week on two separate counts, neither of them with a level in play. The next one off the July 23 top is 120 degrees, November 20 by the calendar, the weekend of the 21st by the wheel.
Scar Tissue - the whole calendar. The market has a memory. Crashes, spikes and record ranges leave a mark, and price has a habit of reacting again on their anniversaries - especially the round ones. Master years are squares, sevens and decades.
The October 23 to November 6 block is a week and a half old and has already produced some of the biggest sessions of the month. GBP/NZD’s 429-pip Wednesday. Silver’s 5.8% Friday. Platinum’s 3.6% Thursday and 3.6% Friday. The 15th anniversary of USD/JPY’s post-war low - October 31, 2011, 75.575 on the feed this letter uses - fell on a Saturday, with USD/JPY 82 Yen higher than it was that day. The block closes Friday with the Bank of England on Thursday, payrolls on Friday and the RBA and a US midterm on Tuesday still inside it.
Where the two agree. This year’s own day-counts run off 36 committed swing dates. When they pile up in the same days as the old anniversaries, two separate systems picked the same stretch without consulting each other.
This block’s two circled counts both landed inside it, which is what the circling was for. Two systems that do not consult each other picked the same ten days, and the ten days have so far produced a 429-pip session, a 5.8% session and a failed shelf. The next block gets posted when this one closes.
After the 9th the calendars go quiet. The next two stretches - November 19 to 23 and November 27 to 30 - are day-counts without an anniversary block behind them. A date with one system behind it is a date. A date with two is a window.
04 PRICE AND TIME
What This Is: Gann’s wheels turn a major price into a set of levels and a set of dates. Run a major top through the Square of Nine - plus the Hexagon chart on Yen pairs - and it produces levels where declines tend to pause and dates when turns tend to happen. Square of Nine on all pairs, Hexagon on Yen pairs; updated as levels are tested, and this week one failed, one held to the pip, and one held for the second time.
The shelf is red. 210.3 to 210.7 - the full rotation under the July top on the Square of Nine and the Hexagon’s own number, which is why the letter called it a shelf and not a rung - was tested eight times since August, gave way once and came back, and failed the ninth on Thursday, Friday and the weekly close. The next rung up is 212.53 at 135 degrees, 151 pips above Friday’s close and untested; the next one down is the shelf itself, which was support, then resistance, then support, and is now a thing the letter has stopped describing with confidence.
AUD/USD’s 0.7069 held by a pip. 180 degrees under the September top computes to 0.7069 and Thursday’s high was 0.70681. The wrong-if at 0.7043 sits eleven pips above Friday’s close and 26 under the rung, and the full rotation at 0.6902 is 130 pips below. A wheel rung and an Ichimoku wrong-if 26 pips apart, and the rung did its job before the wrong-if had to.
EUR/JPY’s 175.2 was pierced and held for a second week. Two Fridays, two lows through the three-quarter rotation by 10 and 12 pips, two closes above it by 54 and 66. A level that gets tested on the low twice and holds on the close twice is a level this feed respects on the close and not on the wick, which is how most of its levels have behaved. The 315-degree rung at 173.09 is 277 pips under Friday’s close and the monthly Kijun-Sen at 171.4 is 446.
USD/JPY’s 157.96 capped the week. The 135-degree rung under the July top is also the floor of the lid, and Wednesday’s high at 158.35 went through it on the wick and closed 157.83. Every close of the week was under it. The lid has capped five straight weekly closes, and the last two of them stopped under this rung.
EUR/USD’s 1.1063 is untested by 42 pips, after Thursday’s low pierced the 1.1113 October low by eight. GBP/USD’s 1.3500 is 66 pips above the week’s high. The 135-degree rung at 1.3317 was closed under on Tuesday and above on the other four days, which is a rung. AUD/CAD’s 0.9855 was closed above on Tuesday and Wednesday by 17 and 16 pips and under on Monday, Thursday and Friday; 0.9699 at 90 degrees is 126 pips under Friday’s close.
Three dated levels came and went this week, and all three produced a turn without producing a test. GBP/USD’s 1.2775 on Monday, 603 pips from the prior Friday’s close, and the turn came the session before. USD/JPY’s 152.6 on Thursday, 426 pips from that close, and the turn came the session before. EUR/JPY’s 179.0 on Friday, 326 pips from it, and the turn came on the day, 241 pips under the level. The rule that demotes a level to a date when price has left is keeping the dates and losing the levels, which is the point of it: a date that turns the market 400 pips from its level is a date, scored as a window, and three of them in a week is three windows.
One is pending and two are ahead. AUD/JPY’s 108.5 on Saturday is a date only after Friday’s check, 231 pips away against a 210-pip average week, with its window open through Monday. GBP/JPY’s 211.0 on Thursday is the appointment, with price two pips above it. CAD/JPY’s 109.4 is the same day and 338 pips away, a date. After that the next dated level is January 5.
05 MONEY WHERE THE MOUTH IS
What This Is: the charts worth an opinion this month, and what the opinion is. Every idea carries the level that proves it wrong. Charts are OANDA data via TradingView - dailies, weeklies and the October monthly bars, which closed on Friday. Weekly.
GBP/JPY - the idea is closed, the appointment is Thursday, and the letter is standing outside it. 211.02.
The downside idea from 208.79 went to a LOSS on Friday’s close and the shelf failed with it. What is left is a level, 211.0, a date, Thursday, a central bank the same day, and a price that closed the week two pips above the level. The letter has had this appointment on the card since September and does not get to pretend it is a surprise.
The weekly chart closed inside its Cloud, 13 pips under the top of the Cloud (Senkou Span A) at 211.15, with the Tenkan-Sen at 211.87 and the Kijun-Sen at 213.25 - which is also the monthly Tenkan-Sen - the next two numbers overhead and the 135-degree rung at 212.53 between them. The daily closed inside its own Cloud on Thursday and Friday, nine pips above the bottom of the daily Cloud (Senkou Span A) at 210.93.
No idea into the appointment, either way, and this is a rule rather than a mood: the letter does not write an idea on a pair in the week its dated level arrives, because the level is the test and an idea written before the test is a guess with a wrong-if attached. Bulls get a hearing on a weekly close above 212.53. Bears get interested on a daily close back under 210.7 and giddy under 209.57, Wednesday’s low. Thursday decides which sentence gets used next week.
USD/JPY - watched, back above the weekly Cloud, still under the lid. 157.60, up 74 on the week.
Scored above: a low on the count, a high in the lid, every close under 158.0. What it leaves is a pair that has spent five weeks under a lid it keeps testing from below, with the conditional - a daily close under 156.0 with the Yen crowd still net short the Yen - unfired and the crowd part of it thinning: 54% short, from 60% three weeks ago, with 11,056 longs bought in two reports. The crowd condition will be gone before the price condition arrives if both keep moving at this pace.
The weekly closed 46 pips above the top of the Cloud (Senkou Span A) at 157.14, one week after dipping inside it, and 84 pips under the Kijun-Sen at 158.44 for a ninth week. The top of the daily Cloud (Senkou Span B) is also 158.44, to the pip, so the daily and the weekly have the same number written on the ceiling. Bulls are back in the argument on a daily close above 158.0 and get a topside idea on a daily close above 158.44, which is the top of the daily Cloud, the weekly Kijun-Sen and the inside of the lid in one number. Bears have the conditional, unchanged: a daily close under 156.0. Neither is an idea yet. If the downside fires, wrong if a daily close is back above 158.0.
EUR/JPY - downside idea, live from 178.34, 248 pips on. Closed 175.86. The October monthly bar closed down 1.4%.
Scored above. What the chart adds is the shape of the two Fridays: both lows through the rung by about ten pips, both closes back above it by more than fifty, which is a market that knows where the level is and has twice declined to close through it. The bears’ line is still a daily close under 175.2, and the two lows through it do not count, by the rule.
October closed 175.86, the second straight down month, with the monthly Tenkan-Sen at 181.5 overhead and the Kijun-Sen at 171.4 the first monthly support under price, 446 pips down, with the full rotation at 171.0 just under it and the 315-degree rung at 173.09 between. The monthly DPO and Composite Index are not re-read on one new bar; the monthly view is the same as last issue’s. Bears get giddy on a daily close under 175.2 and have 173.09 next. Bulls are looking at 177.97 and not much else. Wrong if a weekly close is back above 177.97. Unchanged.
EUR/USD - downside idea stands, 222 pips on, the most of the run. Closed 1.1158, down 45.
Scored above. A level pierced on the low and recovered on the close is the pattern of the month on this board - 1.1113 on Thursday, 175.2 twice, 88.12 by a pip, 1.8942 for two days - and the letter’s bears’ line is a daily close under 1.1113 for exactly that reason. The floor at 1.1063 is 42 pips under the low and untested.
The weekly Tenkan-Sen, a hair under 1.1380, is 221 pips above price and the gap widened for a second week. The wrong-if at 1.1391 now sits eleven pips above the Tenkan-Sen instead of under it, which makes it a slightly harder line to reach, and the letter is leaving it where it was written. Bears get giddy on a daily close under 1.1113 and have 1.1063 next, then 1.0897 at 315 degrees. Bulls are looking at 1.1380. Wrong if the weekly close is back above 1.1391. Unchanged.
GBP/USD - watched, and the bulls missed their line by seven pips on a close and cleared it by 37 on a wick. 1.3390, up 12.
Scored above, both lines touched and neither taken. The Tenkan-Sen the bulls’ line was drawn from has moved down to 1.3353, so by this week’s line the close is 37 above and by the line the letter wrote it is seven under. The letter scores the number it wrote, and does not move a line to where price already is.
The weekly chart has the Kijun-Sen at 1.3406 and the Cloud from 1.3431 (Senkou Span A) to 1.3440 (Senkou Span B) sitting directly overhead, 41 to 50 pips above the close, so the next line up is not a line but a 9-pip Cloud with a Kijun-Sen under it. Bulls get a topside idea on a weekly close above 1.3440, the top of the Cloud (Senkou Span B), and nothing before it. Bears are not heard above 1.3287 and get the band at 1.3135 to 1.3140 under it, which has not been retested since October 14. Nothing committed.
AUD/USD - downside idea, live from 0.6948, 84 pips against, eleven pips from its wrong-if. Closed 0.7032. Nine closes above 0.7000.
The idea is mostly alive, which Miracle Max would tell you is slightly different from alive. Scored above; what the chart adds is that Thursday’s rejection came from the rung and not from the wrong-if, 26 pips higher, and that the week’s close under 0.7043 was the fourth in a row by single or low double digits.
The RBA is Tuesday, and the weekly Tenkan-Sen at 0.7066 and Kijun-Sen at 0.7072 bracket the rung, three pips either side of it. Bears get interested under 0.7010, Tuesday’s low, and giddy under 0.6902. Bulls want the weekly close above 0.7043 and have had two Fridays to get it. Wrong if the weekly close is back above 0.7043. Unchanged, for a fourth week.
NZD/USD - topside idea, a bounce with a destination, 25 pips against. 0.5631, down 71 on the week, 107 of them on Wednesday.
The bounce ran 46 pips in two weeks and gave back 71 in one. Wednesday’s low at 0.5580 stopped 15 pips above the wrong-if, and the Kiwi crowd, 75% short, was right this week. The letter wrote the idea against that crowd on the grounds that a crowd this one-sided is fuel. It is still fuel. It is also, this week, the thing that is on fire.
The destination at the weekly Tenkan-Sen has moved down to 0.5747, with the Kijun-Sen at 0.5780, and the idea ends there if it gets there. Bears get giddy on a weekly close under 0.5565, the only number under price the letter has written down. Bulls need a daily close back above 0.5650 to be heard. Wrong if a weekly close is under 0.5565. Unchanged.
NZD/JPY - watched, and the bears’ line was touched by a pip and left alone. 88.74, down 69 on the week.
Scored above. The bottom of the Cloud (Senkou Span B) is 89.79 for this bar and the next, 106 pips above the close, and the monthly is still inside its own Cloud, which is why this stays a watch and not an idea.
Bears get giddy on a weekly close under 88.12, which the week did not deliver. Bulls get interested on a weekly close back inside the Cloud at 89.79. The signal is five weeks old and has survived a trip inside the Cloud and a trip under the line, which is either resilience or indecision, and the weekly close picks which.
The crosses. Four charts: one idea standing, one that closed, and two watched, one of them the longest-running structure on the board.
AUD/CAD - downside idea, live from 0.9841, 16 pips on. 0.9825. The signal held and the wrong-if was missed by a wick.
Scored above: the wrong-if held on the close and not on the high, and the bulls’ hearing was missed by six-tenths of a pip. The Kijun-Sen has moved down to 0.9883, so the wrong-if moves with it, and the bottom of the daily Cloud (Senkou Span B) sits one pip above it at 0.9884, so the two lines the bulls need are the same line.
The Bank of Canada is done and the RBA is Tuesday. Bears get giddy under 0.9791 and have 0.9699 at 90 degrees under the parity top next. Bulls get nothing short of the wrong-if. Wrong if a daily close is back above the Kijun-Sen, now 0.9883.
EUR/AUD - watched, a 41st week and a new low. 1.5870, down 52 on the week, after a Tuesday that fell 92 and a Thursday that rose 96.
The low of the sample moved to 1.5776 on Wednesday. The ideal bearish structure on the weekly chart - price under the Cloud, Tenkan-Sen under Kijun-Sen, Chikou Span under the candles - is 41 weeks old, which is longer than most sitcoms get. The Kijun-Sen has come down to 1.6198 and the bulls’ 1.5955 is 85 pips overhead.
Still not a downside idea, for last week’s reason: the crowd is short this cross from both ends, 61% on the Euro and 69% on the Aussie. Bears are giddy and have the 45-degree rung off the old low, 1.6155, overhead and nothing of the letter’s underneath. Bulls need a weekly close back above 1.5955 to be heard at all and above the Kijun-Sen at 1.6198 to be believed.
GBP/AUD - watched, and the bears got two days inside the door. 1.9042, up 30 on a 254-pip week.
The bears were told they were not interested above 1.8942. Tuesday closed 1.8939 and Wednesday 1.8892, so they were interested for two days, and Thursday took back 141 pips in a session and closed 1.9033. The bears were let in on Wednesday and had the door shut on them Thursday, which is how the Winchester works in the last act of Shaun of the Dead: the door was never the problem. Thursday’s low at 1.8858 was 115 pips under the 90-degree rung at 1.8973, which is scored above as pierced and recovered, and 102 above the 45-degree rung at 1.8756, which was not needed.
Still two of three: the Chikou Span is above the bodies and price closed 61 pips above the Tenkan-Sen at 1.8981. The missing piece is the bottom of the Cloud (Senkou Span A), 1.9316 for this bar and 1.9239 for the week of November 2, which is 197 pips above Friday’s close instead of 274. Bulls get a topside idea on a weekly close above the bottom of the Cloud, which from Monday means 1.9239. Bears are not interested above 1.8942, a line that gave way on two closes and was back under price by the third, which is a line that has been tested.
GBP/NZD - the idea is closed. Watched. 2.3781, up 318 on the week.
Scored above. The chart is here because 429 pips is worth looking at: the idea’s best close on Tuesday, the wrong-if taken on Wednesday, and the destination band at the bottom of the frame, never visited.
The daily chart has price above the Tenkan-Sen at 2.3594 and the Kijun-Sen at 2.3576 again, with the Chikou Span above the candles, and the weekly Tenkan-Sen is 437 pips under price, 1.9% of it. The idea was written on the stretch to that line. The stretch is wider now, and the letter is not writing the same idea twice in a row on a pair that just ran 429 pips through it.
Not an idea either way. Bulls are comfortable above 2.3668 and get a topside idea from this letter on nothing, because the letter has no topside level on a pair 437 pips over its weekly Tenkan-Sen. Bears get a hearing on a daily close back under 2.3668 and get interested under the daily Tenkan-Sen at 2.3594, and not before.
The weekly stretch - five of seven widened. Last week six of seven gaps narrowed and the letter said the stretch argument was mostly spent. This week five of the seven widened again and GBP/USD crossed above its line.
EUR/USD went from 1.73% under its line to 1.94%. NZD/USD from 1.25% under to 2.03%. USD/JPY from 0.14% above to 0.61%. USD/CAD from 0.17% under to 0.40%. AUD/USD from 0.42% under to 0.49%. USD/CHF narrowed, from 0.66% above to 0.31%. GBP/USD went from 0.14% under to 0.28% above.
The letter said three weeks ago that the next few weeks were more likely to be about the gaps closing than widening, and for one week that was right. The dollar pairs went back to their lines and then left them again, in the same direction they came from. The stretch argument is not spent; it was paused.
Metals - the bears’ lines gave way, and the crowd got to platinum first. Platinum 1,419, down 7.7%. Silver 49.13, down 8.8%. Fifteen percent and nineteen percent in three weeks.
Scored above. The Tenkan-Sen has fallen to 1,529, the Kijun-Sen to 1,594, and the Cloud starts at 1,737, which is 22% away and not a November conversation. The platinum crowd’s 4,195 shorts came in the report dated the Tuesday before the drop, which is the furthest ahead of its price a metals crowd has been in the run.
Bulls are looking for a daily close back above the Tenkan-Sen at 1,529, and have nothing to talk about until then. Bears are comfortable under it and get giddy under 1,406, Friday’s low.
Scored above. Three weeks ago silver closed at 60.82; last Tuesday its bulls were three cents from a line; it is 19% lower, with Friday’s 3.37-dollar range putting the low at 48.86. The Tenkan-Sen is 53.74, the Kijun-Sen 56.98, the Cloud starts at 62.98. Thursday and Friday were the part of the disaster movie where the scientist nobody listened to in act one is finally put on the phone.
The silver crowd is 55% long and added on both sides, and the small accounts still hold 57% more longs than the Big Guys. Bulls want a daily close above 53.74. Bears get giddy under 48.86.
Five ideas standing - EUR/USD and EUR/JPY well ahead, AUD/CAD ahead, AUD/USD and NZD/USD underwater and each a weekly close from a LOSS. Two closed this week. USD/JPY’s conditional is unfired; GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, NZD/JPY, EUR/AUD, GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD are watched, and two metals are waiting on a Tenkan-Sen that is falling toward them. Every level above gets scored next issue, and the ones that fail go first.
06 THE WEEK AHEAD
What This Is: everything worth having on the radar between now and the close of the October 23 to November 6 anniversary block on Friday - the triple inside it was GBP/JPY’s full year, CAD/JPY’s count and the 15th anniversary of USD/JPY’s post-war low, and the first two land Thursday - and then the two stretches after it, in the order they arrive. Weekly.
Monday November 2. AUD/JPY’s 108.5 window closes with the session; a date only after Friday’s rule check, 231 pips from the level, scored next issue. The US clocks changed on Sunday; the bars did not, and the letter’s daily closes are still the New York close.
Tuesday November 3. The RBA, at 10:30 pm New York time on Monday, so Tuesday’s bar carries it, with the Aussie crowd 69% long and selling longs for the first time in three reports. AUD/USD’s idea goes in eleven pips from its wrong-if, and AUD/CAD’s rides through it with the Kijun-Sen 58 pips overhead. And the US votes.
Thursday November 5. GBP/JPY’s full year at 211.0, with the Bank of England at noon London time the same day and price already standing on the level. The one stretch on this list that gets the badge. No idea into it, by rule. CAD/JPY’s 109.4 is the same day and a date only, 338 pips away.
Friday November 6. Payrolls in the morning. GBP/USD’s 270-day count off the February 9 anchor lands by the calendar, with the wheel’s version on Monday the 9th. AUD/CAD’s 45-day count off the September 22 top is the same morning. The anniversary block closes with the session and the next one gets posted when it has.
Thursday to Monday, November 19 to 23. EUR/USD and NZD/USD at 90 days from their August 21 highs on the Thursday, and USD/JPY’s 120 degrees off the July 23 top from Friday the 20th into Monday the 23rd. Counts only, no levels, no anniversaries behind them.
Friday to Monday, November 27 to 30. The March 2 gap set at 270 days, the counts that turned the board at 225 and at 240 days. If GBP/USD’s October 14 low confirms as a swing, its own 45-day count lands the same stretch.
For information only. Not investment advice. Currency and futures trading carries substantial risk of loss. Do your own due diligence before acting on anything in this letter.
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